Just came across this bit of analysis on the spate of attacks at the end of the month...
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[FONT="]The last two weeks in November have been extremely busy in the Indian Ocean, with multiple attacks throughout the area. This is interesting for two reasons: the first is that pirates have stepped up their operations to an extremely high tempo as the North-East monsoon is fast approaching. This weather system is due to begin in December and, while not as severe as the summer monsoon, will render much of the Indian Ocean unsuitable for pirate activities until the end of February. This was displayed clearly in winter 2009/10 when attacks in the open Indian Ocean dropped to 2 in January / February, but rose to 27 in March alone as the monsoon ended.
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[FONT="]This approaching weather makes pirates eager to secure as many prizes as possible before the monsoon, which has led to a sharp increase in attacks.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The second interesting aspect of these attacks is the area in which they are taking place. Recent months have seen pirates concentrate their activities in the Somali Basin off the coasts of Kenya and Tanzania, taking advantage of the limited naval forces in the area, and the guaranteed stream of merchant traffic trading into Mombasa and Dar es-Salaam. However, the last two weeks have seen hugely increased activity in the northern Indian Ocean, targeting vessels entering / exiting the Gulf of Aden and those transiting south from the Arabian Gulf. The majority of these attacks have taken place between E065° - E070°; this deliberately targets vessels transiting between the Cape of Good Hope and the Arabian Gulf – the majority of which is tanker traffic. Most vessels now navigate along the E067° or E070° line as it is believed, incorrectly, to provide the safest possible route, and is outside the war risk area. However, as noted many times before Somali pirates are unlimited by range and simply shift their operating area to the area of heaviest merchant traffic.[/FONT]
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[FONT="]A final point to note is that the huge majority of these attacks were failures. This indicates that in their desperation to secure prizes before the monsoon arrives, pirates are attacking vessels which are not the most suitable targets, and are therefore more likely to escape capture.[/FONT]
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[FONT="]The last two weeks in November have been extremely busy in the Indian Ocean, with multiple attacks throughout the area. This is interesting for two reasons: the first is that pirates have stepped up their operations to an extremely high tempo as the North-East monsoon is fast approaching. This weather system is due to begin in December and, while not as severe as the summer monsoon, will render much of the Indian Ocean unsuitable for pirate activities until the end of February. This was displayed clearly in winter 2009/10 when attacks in the open Indian Ocean dropped to 2 in January / February, but rose to 27 in March alone as the monsoon ended.
[/FONT]
[FONT="][/FONT]
[FONT="]This approaching weather makes pirates eager to secure as many prizes as possible before the monsoon, which has led to a sharp increase in attacks.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The second interesting aspect of these attacks is the area in which they are taking place. Recent months have seen pirates concentrate their activities in the Somali Basin off the coasts of Kenya and Tanzania, taking advantage of the limited naval forces in the area, and the guaranteed stream of merchant traffic trading into Mombasa and Dar es-Salaam. However, the last two weeks have seen hugely increased activity in the northern Indian Ocean, targeting vessels entering / exiting the Gulf of Aden and those transiting south from the Arabian Gulf. The majority of these attacks have taken place between E065° - E070°; this deliberately targets vessels transiting between the Cape of Good Hope and the Arabian Gulf – the majority of which is tanker traffic. Most vessels now navigate along the E067° or E070° line as it is believed, incorrectly, to provide the safest possible route, and is outside the war risk area. However, as noted many times before Somali pirates are unlimited by range and simply shift their operating area to the area of heaviest merchant traffic.[/FONT]
[FONT="][/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]A final point to note is that the huge majority of these attacks were failures. This indicates that in their desperation to secure prizes before the monsoon arrives, pirates are attacking vessels which are not the most suitable targets, and are therefore more likely to escape capture.[/FONT]