BBC News - Will Mozambique end up like Nigeria or Norway?
The 2011 discovery of a major off-shore gas field, combined with extensive coal reserves inland, has prompted some to suggest that Mozambique, one of the world's poorest countries, has hit the jackpot.
The gas is thought to be worth an estimated $350bn (£233bn) while projections predict that from 2015 the country could produce 100 million tonnes a year, putting it just outside the top 10 producers in the world.
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Mozambique Direct
Working Lives: Maputo
One Square Mile of Mozambique
Such riches, for a country with an economy that produces just $26bn (£17bn) a year and is rebuilding itself after a 16-year brutal civil war that ended in 1992, does sound promising.
It is certainly enough to make a difference to Mozambique, which has bumped along the bottom of a range of indices measuring poverty, health and education for decades.
But turning those resources into riches is not straightforward.
Two paths
Consider the contrasting experiences of Norway and Nigeria, two nations that made major oil finds in the 1960s.
Today, Norway exports six times more energy than it consumes and, per capita, is one of the richest countries in the world.
Nigeria, by contrast, still imports energy and at least $400bn (£266bn) of oil revenue is thought to have been stolen or misspent since independence in 1960. It remains one of the poorest nations on the planet.
It is an unfair comparison in many ways, but one that nevertheless starkly illustrates the fact that an abundance of natural resources does not automatically lead to wealth and prosperity.
The main reason for the disparity is of course their relative wealth.
While Norway was already rich enough to pay for the expertise and infrastructure development needed to drive its nascent oil industry Nigeria had to rely on multinational companies to pay these costs.
Norway also set up a sovereign fund to reinvest and save for the post-oil future. It is now worth 40% more than Norway's entire economy.
Continue reading the main story
Divergent fortunes
Nigeria Norway
$400bn oil revenue stolen or misspent since 1960
Norway's sovereign fund worth $670bn (2012)
Nigeria's treasury loses $6bn a year to oil theft
Norway's annual oil revenue is $40bn
Nigerian GNI per capita is $1,200
Norway's GNI per capita is $88,890
As a result much of the resulting profits went to those who provided the necessary investment.
Like many developing countries, Mozambique finds itself in a similar position.
Extracting gas from an off-shore gas field is expensive and time consuming. It can take a decade before off-shore gas can be extracted from a new field.
Mozambique is only expected to gain around $20bn (£13bn) during the lifetime of the 100 trillion cubic feet (2.8 trillion cubic metres) of gas discovered.
That is less than 10% of its estimated $350bn (£233bn) total value.
Industry experts say such a paltry sum is consistent with what a developing country would expect to receive, given the high level of outside investment.
Sebastien Marlier, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit who tracks developments in Mozambique, is not confident that the country will be East Africa's Norway.
"I think Mozambique will have a very hard time reaching the standards set by Norway," says the economist.
Continue reading the main story
“
Start Quote
A small elite associated with the ruling party and with strong business interests, dominates the economyâ€
Sebastien Marlier
Business analyst
The challenges are immense. To properly exploit the resources underground, Mozambique needs a solid infrastructure, expertise and above all, a competent, honest government.
"Corruption has become a major concern in Mozambique," says Mr Marlier.
"A small elite associated with the ruling party and with strong business interests, dominates the economy."
Concerns focus on the way mining and exploration licences are agreed between the government and multinational companies that have been queuing up to buy into the boom.
The licences are effectively a right to exploit a find and, and once bought, can be traded.
Depending on market conditions, their price can rise dramatically, or indeed fall. Early buyers stand to make a profit if the finds turn out to be more valuable than first thought.
Furthermore, many multinational firms operating in Mozambique secured tax exemptions for up to 15 years.
When they bought the licences, in some cases more than a decade ago, the country was considered to be such a high risk prospect that strong incentives were needed to attract investment.
If capital gains taxes had been paid on the 2011 sale of the Benga coal mine by Riverdale to Rio Tinto for $3.8bn (£2.5bn) Mozambique would have netted hundreds of millions of dollars.
The 2011 discovery of a major off-shore gas field, combined with extensive coal reserves inland, has prompted some to suggest that Mozambique, one of the world's poorest countries, has hit the jackpot.
The gas is thought to be worth an estimated $350bn (£233bn) while projections predict that from 2015 the country could produce 100 million tonnes a year, putting it just outside the top 10 producers in the world.
Continue reading the main story
Mozambique Direct
Working Lives: Maputo
One Square Mile of Mozambique
Such riches, for a country with an economy that produces just $26bn (£17bn) a year and is rebuilding itself after a 16-year brutal civil war that ended in 1992, does sound promising.
It is certainly enough to make a difference to Mozambique, which has bumped along the bottom of a range of indices measuring poverty, health and education for decades.
But turning those resources into riches is not straightforward.
Two paths
Consider the contrasting experiences of Norway and Nigeria, two nations that made major oil finds in the 1960s.
Today, Norway exports six times more energy than it consumes and, per capita, is one of the richest countries in the world.
Nigeria, by contrast, still imports energy and at least $400bn (£266bn) of oil revenue is thought to have been stolen or misspent since independence in 1960. It remains one of the poorest nations on the planet.
It is an unfair comparison in many ways, but one that nevertheless starkly illustrates the fact that an abundance of natural resources does not automatically lead to wealth and prosperity.
The main reason for the disparity is of course their relative wealth.
While Norway was already rich enough to pay for the expertise and infrastructure development needed to drive its nascent oil industry Nigeria had to rely on multinational companies to pay these costs.
Norway also set up a sovereign fund to reinvest and save for the post-oil future. It is now worth 40% more than Norway's entire economy.
Continue reading the main story
Divergent fortunes
Nigeria Norway
$400bn oil revenue stolen or misspent since 1960
Norway's sovereign fund worth $670bn (2012)
Nigeria's treasury loses $6bn a year to oil theft
Norway's annual oil revenue is $40bn
Nigerian GNI per capita is $1,200
Norway's GNI per capita is $88,890
As a result much of the resulting profits went to those who provided the necessary investment.
Like many developing countries, Mozambique finds itself in a similar position.
Extracting gas from an off-shore gas field is expensive and time consuming. It can take a decade before off-shore gas can be extracted from a new field.
Mozambique is only expected to gain around $20bn (£13bn) during the lifetime of the 100 trillion cubic feet (2.8 trillion cubic metres) of gas discovered.
That is less than 10% of its estimated $350bn (£233bn) total value.
Industry experts say such a paltry sum is consistent with what a developing country would expect to receive, given the high level of outside investment.
Sebastien Marlier, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit who tracks developments in Mozambique, is not confident that the country will be East Africa's Norway.
"I think Mozambique will have a very hard time reaching the standards set by Norway," says the economist.
Continue reading the main story
“
Start Quote
A small elite associated with the ruling party and with strong business interests, dominates the economyâ€
Sebastien Marlier
Business analyst
The challenges are immense. To properly exploit the resources underground, Mozambique needs a solid infrastructure, expertise and above all, a competent, honest government.
"Corruption has become a major concern in Mozambique," says Mr Marlier.
"A small elite associated with the ruling party and with strong business interests, dominates the economy."
Concerns focus on the way mining and exploration licences are agreed between the government and multinational companies that have been queuing up to buy into the boom.
The licences are effectively a right to exploit a find and, and once bought, can be traded.
Depending on market conditions, their price can rise dramatically, or indeed fall. Early buyers stand to make a profit if the finds turn out to be more valuable than first thought.
Furthermore, many multinational firms operating in Mozambique secured tax exemptions for up to 15 years.
When they bought the licences, in some cases more than a decade ago, the country was considered to be such a high risk prospect that strong incentives were needed to attract investment.
If capital gains taxes had been paid on the 2011 sale of the Benga coal mine by Riverdale to Rio Tinto for $3.8bn (£2.5bn) Mozambique would have netted hundreds of millions of dollars.